Amid worsening relations with Pakistan, the US has begun to rely more on supply routes through Central Asia:
The United States is increasingly relying on three transit routes snaking through Central Asia, Russia and the Caucasus, to ship non-military supplies and fuel into Afghanistan as the deteriorating relationship between Washington and Pakistan closes off border crossings, according to a Senate report obtained by The Associated Press.
Use of the Northern Distribution Network to supply U.S. and coalition forces has been crucial in the ongoing war against terrorism and its role underscores the political and strategic importance of the Central Asian nations on the frontlines of the conflict. In broader security terms, the United States has invested millions in the former Soviet states — compared to billions spent on Afghanistan — but even that limited U.S. assistance could serve as a bulwark against the region’s major players, Russia and China, the report suggested.
The study found that just three years ago, about 90 percent of non-military supplies to Afghanistan went through Karachi, Pakistan. Today, close to 75 percent of cargo is shipped through the northern network. Some 40 percent of cargo goes through the ground network, 31 percent is shipped by air and 29 percent heads through Pakistan, the study said, citing figures from the military’s U.S. Transportation Command.
So if our aid agreement with Pakistan is fundamentally a transactional one, what exactly are we getting in return? According to the Senate report cited above, an increasing percentage of supplies for the Afghan war effort are being transported from the north, meaning we no longer have to rely on ground or air routes through Pakistan. Well, is it about drone bases then? Unlikely, according to Spencer Ackerman in Wired. In fact, not only are the Pakistani government’s threats to close the US’ drone bases in its country empty, but even if they were not such closures would not pose enough of a conundrum to deter the CIA from continuing to launch their highly accurate strikes in Waziristan. I don’t think anyone would have the gall to argue that the billions of dollars we’re currently pumping into Islamabad is improving anything, so let’s go ahead and assume that we’re giving them the money out of a fear of what would happen were we to stop. The top entry into this category would surely be concern over Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. A credible fear, surely, but ultimately an overblown one. Besides, what’s stopping from a particularly radical ISI/Army official from facilitating such a deal now? It wouldn’t be the first time figures familiar with the nuclear program in Pakistan shared the technology with, uh, undesirable elements. The other concern, I suppose, is that cutting off funds would precipitate some sort of regime collapse, leading to a power vacuum. I guess it’s possible, but frankly it’s hard to see how things could get any worse than they already are. Indeed, the latest news out of Pakistan suggests that the country is closest it has been to a coup since Musharraf’s impeachment and subsequent exile in 2008:
The army warned of “serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences” after the PM criticised military leaders in a media interview.
Meanwhile, Mr Gilani has sacked his defence secretary, who is seen as having close ties to the military…
On Monday Mr Gilani was quoted telling China’s People’s Daily Online that Pakistan’s army chief and head of intelligence acted unconstitutionally by making submissions to a Supreme Court inquiry which has been rocking the government…
On Wednesday, the military hit back with an unusually strongly-worded statement.
“There can be no allegation more serious than what the honourable prime minister has levelled.
“This has very serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences for the country,” the statement said, without specifying what these might be. [emphasis mine]
If there were any illusions left over the purpose of American aid to Pakistan, they were dispelled last month when Congress voted to freeze $700 million dollars of bilateral aid, about a third of what the government sends Islamabad annually. The funds would be withheld, Congress told Pakistan, until they made an effort to tackle the issue of “homemade bombs.” Clearly, this isn’t about helping the Pakistani people. A people who, it should be noted, have suffered most at the hands of the extremist elements that our aid ironically subsidizes . While the generals and civil leaders continue to line their pockets, the Pakistani people remain dismally poor, uneducated, and bereft of the most basic necessities.
Addendum: It occurred me that the first part of my post could be misconstrued as expressing some degree of support for America’s drone operations in Pakistan. My view is in fact the exact opposite. Though lost amid the cacophonous din of the presidential campaign, there have recently been a series of hard-hitting pieces chronicling the devastating civilian toll wrought by the CIA’s drone program. Noor Behram, the activist whose photos were linked above, has estimated that at least 600 civilians were killed at the 60 sites in Waziristan he himself has visited and documented. Although his survey comprises just a fraction of the drone-strike sites in the region, the numbers do give one a good idea of just how imprecise these aptly named “hellfire missiles” are.
And if the civilian toll is not enough to convince you that the drone program is fundamentally evil, then at least consider the fact that these strikes have in no small measure contributed to a significant upsurge in Anti-Americanism throughout Pakistan, emboldening and swelling the ranks of the very forces we have spent so much time and money trying to eliminate.